Feature to Dynamics: Feature-space to Autoregression strategy for Zero-shot Time Series Forecasting

Zero-shot time series forecasting aims to predict future values for previously unseen series, requiring models to generalize temporal dynamics beyond the training distribution. While recent foundation models achieve strong in-domain performance through large-scale pretraining, their effectiveness often relies on broad data coverage and implicit pattern memorization, which can limit generalization when data are scarce or source and target domains are disjoint. In this work, we propose FSA, a feature-to-strategy framework for controlled zero-shot univariate forecasting. Instead of directly modeling raw sequences in the observation space, FSA learns a structured mapping from an interpretable feature space to an autoregressive strategy space. This design introduces explicit inductive biases that disentangle global trends, periodic components, and local temporal dynamics, enabling the model to capture transferable time-series structure with fewer data assumptions. Empirical results show that, under identical pretraining data, training protocol, and comparable parameter budgets, FSA outperforms Transformer-based architectures in our controlled zero-shot setting.

Aligned but Fragile: Enhancing LLM Safety Robustness via Zeroth-Order Optimization

Safety alignment for large language models (LLMs) aims to reduce harmful or unsafe behavior while preserving general utility. However, recent findings reveal that alignment effects can be fragile: lightweight post-alignment manipulations, such as parameter noise, activation noise, or quantization, can easily weaken the intended safety behavior. Prior efforts to improve robustness have primarily focused on data curation, modified alignment objectives, and safety-critical parameter identification, leaving the role of the optimizer itself largely unexplored. In this paper, we are the first to study the robustness of safety alignment from the perspective of the base optimizer. This optimizer-centric view naturally points to zeroth-order optimization, which provides a robustness-oriented signal by evaluating safety alignment under perturbations. Based on this insight, we propose a hybrid framework that first performs standard first-order safety alignment and then applies zeroth-order refinement to improve robustness. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that only a few zeroth-order refinement steps can enhance robustness while preserving safety alignment. We further improve the efficiency of zeroth-order refinement by exploiting its inherent perturbation-based evaluations to estimate layer-wise robustness sensitivity, enabling the refinement process to concentrate updates on robustness-critical layers with modest training overhead.

Empowering VLMs for Few-Shot Multimodal Time Series Classification via Tailored Agentic Reasoning

In this paper, we propose the first VL$\underline{\textbf{M}}$ $\underline{\textbf{a}}$gentic $\underline{\textbf{r}}$easoning framework for few-$\underline{\textbf{s}}$hot multimodal $\underline{\textbf{T}}$ime $\underline{\textbf{S}}$eries $\underline{\textbf{C}}$lassification ($\textbf{MarsTSC}$), which introduces a self-evolving knowledge bank as a dynamic context iteratively refined via reflective agentic reasoning. The framework comprises three collaborative roles: i) Generator conducts reliable classification via reasoning; ii) Reflector diagnoses the root causes of reasoning errors to yield discriminative insights targeting the temporal features overlooked by Generator; iii) Modifier applies verified updates to the knowledge bank to prevent context collapse. We further introduce a test-time update strategy to enable cautious, continuous knowledge bank refinement to mitigate few-shot bias and distribution shift. Extensive experiments across 12 mainstream time series benchmarks demonstrate that $\textbf{MarsTSC}$ delivers substantial and consistent performance gains across 6 VLM backbones, outperforming both classical and foundation model-based time series baselines under few-shot conditions, while producing interpretable rationales that ground each classification decision in human-readable feature evidence.

WaveMoE: A Wavelet-Enhanced Mixture-of-Experts Foundation Model for Time Series Forecasting

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently achieved remarkable success in universal forecasting by leveraging large-scale pretraining on diverse time series data. Complementing this progress, incorporating frequency-domain information yields promising performance in enhancing the modeling of complex temporal patterns, such as periodicity and localized high-frequency dynamics, which are prevalent in real-world time series. To advance this direction, we propose a new perspective that integrates explicit frequency-domain representations into scalable foundation models, and introduce WaveMoE, a wavelet-enhanced mixture-of-experts foundation model for time series forecasting. WaveMoE adopts a dual-path architecture that jointly processes time series tokens and wavelet tokens aligned along a unified temporal axis, and coordinates them through a shared expert routing mechanism that enables consistent expert specialization while efficiently scaling model capacity. Preliminary experimental results on 16 diverse benchmark datasets indicate that WaveMoE has the potential to further improve forecasting performance by incorporating wavelet-domain corpora.

MsFormer: Enabling Robust Predictive Maintenance Services for Industrial Devices

Providing reliable predictive maintenance is a critical industrial AI service essential for ensuring the high availability of manufacturing devices. Existing deep-learning methods present competitive results on such tasks but lack a general service-oriented framework to capture complex dependencies in industrial IoT sensor data. While Transformer-based models show strong sequence modeling capabilities, their direct deployment as robust AI services faces significant bottlenecks. Specifically, streaming sensor data collected in real-world service environments often exhibits multi-scale temporal correlations driven by machine working principles. Besides, the datasets available for training time-to-failure predictive services are typically limited in size. These issues pose significant challenges for directly applying existing models as robust predictive services. To address these challenges, we propose MsFormer, a lightweight Multi-scale Transformer designed as a unified AI service model for reliable industrial predictive maintenance. MsFormer incorporates a Multi-scale Sampling (MS) module and a tailored position encoding mechanism to capture sequential correlations across multi-streaming service data. Additionally, to accommodate data-scarce service environments, MsFormer adopts a lightweight attention mechanism with straightforward pooling operations instead of self-attention. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, MsFormer outperforms across industrial devices and operating conditions, demonstrating strong generalizability while maintaining a highly reliable Quality of Service (QoS).

Time Series Reasoning via Process-Verifiable Thinking Data Synthesis and Scheduling for Tailored LLM Reasoning

Time series is a pervasive data type across various application domains, rendering the reasonable solving of diverse time series tasks a long-standing goal. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs), especially their reasoning abilities unlocked through reinforcement learning (RL), have opened new opportunities for tackling tasks with long Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning. However, leveraging LLM reasoning for time series remains in its infancy, hindered by the absence of carefully curated time series CoT data for training, limited data efficiency caused by underexplored data scheduling, and the lack of RL algorithms tailored for exploiting such time series CoT data. In this paper, we introduce VeriTime, a framework that tailors LLMs for time series reasoning through data synthesis, data scheduling, and RL training. First, we propose a data synthesis pipeline that constructs a TS-text multimodal dataset with process-verifiable annotations. Second, we design a data scheduling mechanism that arranges training samples according to a principled hierarchy of difficulty and task taxonomy. Third, we develop a two-stage reinforcement finetuning featuring fine-grained, multi-objective rewards that leverage verifiable process-level CoT data. Extensive experiments show that VeriTime substantially boosts LLM performance across diverse time series reasoning tasks. Notably, it enables compact 3B, 4B models to achieve reasoning capabilities on par with or exceeding those of larger proprietary LLMs.

Understanding and Preserving Safety in Fine-Tuned LLMs

Fine-tuning is an essential and pervasive functionality for applying large language models (LLMs) to downstream tasks. However, it has the potential to substantially degrade safety alignment, e.g., by greatly increasing susceptibility to jailbreak attacks, even when the fine-tuning data is entirely harmless. Despite garnering growing attention in defense efforts during the fine-tuning stage, existing methods struggle with a persistent safety-utility dilemma: emphasizing safety compromises task performance, whereas prioritizing utility typically requires deep fine-tuning that inevitably leads to steep safety declination. In this work, we address this dilemma by shedding new light on the geometric interaction between safety- and utility-oriented gradients in safety-aligned LLMs. Through systematic empirical analysis, we uncover three key insights: (I) safety gradients lie in a low-rank subspace, while utility gradients span a broader high-dimensional space; (II) these subspaces are often negatively correlated, causing directional conflicts during fine-tuning; and (III) the dominant safety direction can be efficiently estimated from a single sample. Building upon these novel insights, we propose safety-preserving fine-tuning (SPF), a lightweight approach that explicitly removes gradient components conflicting with the low-rank safety subspace. Theoretically, we show that SPF guarantees utility convergence while bounding safety drift. Empirically, SPF consistently maintains downstream task performance and recovers nearly all pre-trained safety alignment, even under adversarial fine-tuning scenarios. Furthermore, SPF exhibits robust resistance to both deep fine-tuning and dynamic jailbreak attacks. Together, our findings provide new mechanistic understanding and practical guidance toward always-aligned LLM fine-tuning.

Safety at One Shot: Patching Fine-Tuned LLMs with A Single Instance

Fine-tuning safety-aligned large language models (LLMs) can substantially compromise their safety. Previous approaches require many safety samples or calibration sets, which not only incur significant computational overhead during realignment but also lead to noticeable degradation in model utility. Contrary to this belief, we show that safety alignment can be fully recovered with only a single safety example, without sacrificing utility and at minimal cost. Remarkably, this recovery is effective regardless of the number of harmful examples used in fine-tuning or the size of the underlying model, and convergence is achieved within just a few epochs. Furthermore, we uncover the low-rank structure of the safety gradient, which explains why such efficient correction is possible. We validate our findings across five safety-aligned LLMs and multiple datasets, demonstrating the generality of our approach.

Lightweight Time Series Data Valuation on Time Series Foundation Models via In-Context Finetuning

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated increasing capabilities due to their extensive pretraining on large volumes of diverse time series data. Consequently, the quality of time series data is crucial to TSFM performance, rendering an accurate and efficient data valuation of time series for TSFMs indispensable. However, traditional data valuation methods, such as influence functions, face severe computational bottlenecks due to their poor scalability with growing TSFM model sizes and often fail to preserve temporal dependencies. In this paper, we propose LTSV, a Lightweight Time Series Valuation on TSFMS via in-context finetuning. Grounded in the theoretical evidence that in-context finetuning approximates the influence function, LTSV estimates a sample's contribution by measuring the change in context loss after in-context finetuning, leveraging the strong generalization capabilities of TSFMs to produce robust and transferable data valuations. To capture temporal dependencies, we introduce temporal block aggregation, which integrates per-block influence scores across overlapping time windows. Experiments across multiple time series datasets and models demonstrate that LTSV consistently provides reliable and strong valuation performance, while maintaining manageable computational requirements. Our results suggest that in-context finetuning on time series foundation models provides a practical and effective bridge between data attribution and model generalization in time series learning.

Module-Aware Parameter-Efficient Machine Unlearning on Transformers

Transformer has become fundamental to a vast series of pre-trained large models that have achieved remarkable success across diverse applications. Machine unlearning, which focuses on efficiently removing specific data influences to comply with privacy regulations, shows promise in restricting updates to influence-critical parameters. However, existing parameter-efficient unlearning methods are largely devised in a module-oblivious manner, which tends to inaccurately identify these parameters and leads to inferior unlearning performance for Transformers. In this paper, we propose {\tt MAPE-Unlearn}, a module-aware parameter-efficient machine unlearning approach that uses a learnable pair of masks to pinpoint influence-critical parameters in the heads and filters of Transformers. The learning objective of these masks is derived by desiderata of unlearning and optimized through an efficient algorithm featured by a greedy search with a warm start. Extensive experiments on various Transformer models and datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of {\tt MAPE-Unlearn} for unlearning.